The Certainty Bias: A Potentially Dangerous Mental Flaw

You know one or more of these people: Always certain they are right, making important decisions on the certainty of "gut feelings" or personal beliefs. Every planner has to deal with them. These ensights on the "Certainty Bias" from neuroscientist Robert Burton offer some help in understanding the phenomenon:

I have looked upon those who ooze self-confidence and certainty with a combination of envy and suspicion. . . . It is easy to be cynical and suspect the worst of motives, from greed to ignorance, but I have known many first-rate, highly concerned and seemingly well motivated physicians who, nevertheless, operate based upon gut feelings and personal beliefs even in the face of contrary scientific evidence. After years of rumination, it gradually dawned on me that there may be an underlying biological component to such behavior.